DRV raises its forecast for the overall travel market: Revenue and number of guests are increasing more than anticipated.
Germany,Fulda, July 31, 2024
Travel holds a high place for Germans, and this year shows that the desire to travel remains very strong. Amid the peak travel season, the German Travel Association (DRV) presents its current forecast for the entire travel year 2024. Overall, the travel industry expects total expenditures for holiday and personal travel to reach 80 billion euros. The current forecast includes both package tours from tour operators and individually organized vacations with at least one commercial overnight stay booked before departure.
The new expected peak value for the tourism year 2023/24, which runs from November 2023 to the end of October 2024, corresponds to a revenue growth of six percent compared to the previous year. At the beginning of the year, in the first DRV forecast for the year, a four percent increase and expenditures of 78 billion euros were expected. "This shows that Germans are still very eager to travel. Vacations remain at the top of the consumer wish list," says DRV President Norbert Fiebig. Regarding the number of trips, the market forecast predicts an overall increase of two percent compared to the previous year. This includes both trips organized by tour operators and those self-organized by travelers.
The estimates are based on a market forecast developed by the DRV in collaboration with industry experts. Twice a year – at the beginning of the year and in summer – the DRV announces the well-founded market forecast with the latest market figures and current expert assessments.
According to industry experts, various factors play a role in this significantly more positive forecast compared to January: Germans' enthusiasm for travel remains high despite rising energy and living costs. For most households, vacations are a priority, with Germans clearly cutting back on other non-essential consumption and larger investments. Additionally, increased purchasing power from good wage agreements and real income growth, along with a stable employment situation, contribute to this trend.
Number of Guests in the Tour Operator Market Grows More Cautiously – Self-organized Market Develops Better Than Expected
Alongside vacation destinations in the eastern Mediterranean – including Turkey and Greece – the high demand for cruises is driving the overall market development particularly positively. Ocean cruises are growing disproportionately compared to the previous year. Furthermore, there is stable demand for long-haul travel – even in summer.
The market for self-organized travel is developing more strongly. Experts anticipate that this market will develop better than initially expected at the beginning of the year. Originally, they had expected declining guest numbers compared to the previous year. However, it appears that travel within Germany and to neighboring countries, known as land-based travel, is increasingly in demand, and international trips are being organized independently. It is believed that the European Football Championship in Germany from mid-June to mid-July also kept many citizens from traveling abroad. Therefore, industry experts predict increasing guest numbers in the self-organized market this year. For organized tours, they still expect an increase in the number of vacationers compared to the previous year, although they had initially expected higher percentage growth.
2024: A Strong Year for Early Bookings and an Unusually High Number of Last-Minute Offers
After travel agencies and tour operators already recorded a very strong early booking business at the beginning of the year, there has been an unusually high influx of new bookings for organized tours (package and modular trips) in recent weeks. Europe's third-largest tour operator, FTI, had to file for bankruptcy at the beginning of June, resulting in the cancellation of FTI trips booked for the summer. Consequently, numerous tour operators purchased additional contingents and launched trips at attractive prices. This has significantly boosted this year's last-minute business. Thus, the FTI bankruptcy has led to a rare effect so far: a significantly revived early booking business and a simultaneously very strong last-minute business. However, the currently booked sales volume of short-term business is not yet sufficient to compensate for the gap caused by the canceled FTI trips.
Outlook for Winter 2024/25: Moderate Growth Expected
For the winter season 2024/25, which begins in November 2024 and ends in April 2025, the DRV expects a four percent increase in revenue to 26 billion euros in its forecast for the overall travel market. Regarding the number of travelers, the market forecast predicts a one percent increase compared to the previous winter. The positive assessment is partly based on the already very good early booking figures for the upcoming winter season. The DRV also expects that the capacities redistributed in the market after FTI's exit will be fully available through other tour operators for the winter season.
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